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02/02/2003 Archived Entry: "A relaxing Sunday"
The social theorist Friedrich A. Hayek believed that unintended consequences were among the most powerful forces at work in society. That was why he described social institutions as being the result of human action but not of human design. "Unintended consequences" was a cornerstone of his argument against social engineering.
The unintended consequences of the myriad "anti-terrorist" laws and policies -- imposed by and in every local post office to every federal office, touching every Iowa cornfield to every NY cabbie -- are unimaginable by their very nature. They can be glimpsed only by observing the consequences in specific, isolated scenarios. For example...months ago, I was struck by the unintended consequence of just one policy applied to one industry: the effect of intrusive, extensive questions at the border on trucking. (The questions, BTW, have little to do with security; they are aimed at controlling the economic flow.) As Brad & I neared a border crossing that usually has heavy but brisk traffic, we passed about two solid miles of trucks parked in the left lane, waiting to be cleared. I'd never seen anything like it but I've seen identical sights since. If the truck at the end of the line got through without a two-hour wait, he was lucky. Trucks entering from the States also faced a delay, which was less onerous. That means each truck driver who carried cargo back and forth probably had an extra two - three hours added to their work days, hours stolen away from their families and from productive labor. It also means that truckers who worked on the margin might well be "driven under" by the added requirement.
Consider another intended consequence. The Christian Science Monitor -- which I've come to trust as a source -- reports: "As the Pentagon begins mobilizing America's 1.2 million reservists and National Guard troops - nearly 95,000 already are active - many are leaving behind not just families and loved ones, but also key public-service jobs that can't easily be filled." The dislocation of productive young people is not merely a human tragedy in that they are separated from their families and real lives. It is an economic catastrophe. For them, for the taxpayers who must foot the bills, and in terms of the unintended consequences. For example, police officers and firemen disproportionately enlist as reservists. This has left such departments around the nation depleted. Given budget cuts and the legal requirement to keep jobs open for reservists who return, cities face difficulty replacing those personnel. As one police administrator remarks, "They're taking them just when we're supposed to be beefing up homeland security." Unintended consequences are often more powerful than anything planned.
Meanwhile, a new theory is emerging...and powerfully so. It is called Rapid Dominance -- a/k/a "Shock and Awe." Think Blitzkrieg and you get the idea. The U.S. is supposed to absolutely and immediately smash "enemies" who present a threat to its national security. That's how to resolve the problem -- smash. It may well be true that America can Shock and Awe Iraq, achieving a massive military victory in a short period. But what then? Years of occupation, like Israel with Palestine, during which US troops fight against Iraqis (and God knows who else) in urban warfare and against guerilla tactics in the countryside. America cannot win such a peace.
On the Personal Front:
I am turning more to personal matters these days in what I called "nesting." The world is careening toward senseless mayhem and I find real solice in planning my garden for Spring, re-organizing my kitchen, stocking my pantry, trying new recipes. These are corners of life I can control. I can stack cans of soup -- newest to the back, oldest to the front, chicken to the left, beef to the right -- and make one shelf in the world orderly. It may be a strange response to Iraq quagmire and the Columbia disaster but I am experimenting with how to poach a whole salmon...something I've not done before. Part of the attraction is that the salmon doesn't overwhelm me.
All else on the farm is fine. About five minutes ago, the dogs decided we were under attack by my neighbor's two affable German Shepherds who like to patrol the fence between our properties...and great barking has resulted. Brad is downstairs tinkering with computers and electronic gear. I am trying to raise my blood-caffeine level to the point where work calls out to me: right now, only resounding silence. Oh...and there is salmon for lunch. ;-)
Best to all,
mac